Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4018…d14a sports 1724 markets active 54d ago coverage 63d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,543 (+303%) realized +$1,257 · open +$286
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate1%28W / 2069L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day55.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,114
7 days+$1,114
14 days+$1,114
30 days+$1,114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$75
other 18% +$384
crypto 10% −$54
tech 9% −$48
world 7% +$75
weather 5% −$26
politics 3% −$11
culture 1% −$5
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-74.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 373 +1.5% -8.2% 5% 5% -99.6%
≤30d 373 +1.5% -8.2% 5% 5% -99.6%
≤90d 374 +6.8% -3.4% 5% 5% -93.8%
all 2097 -71.9% -74.6% 1% 1% -94.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -74.6% 1% -94.7%
10% ← realistic here -77.0% 1% -95.2%
15% -79.3% 1% -95.6%
20% -81.3% 1% -96.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1299% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt +176% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -96% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$0 · ×204.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized+$1,257
Unrealized+$286
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses28 / 2069
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions114
Markets (closed)2097 / 1724
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$0
Trades / day55.5
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 114 History 2097 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Samsonova (-1.5) vs Siegemund (+1.5) Samsonova 44¢ $0 $83 +$83 (+43650%)
Will the National Union for Democracy and Progress win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes 15¢ $0 $70 +$70 (+14850%)
Will Kwa Na Kwa win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes $0 $14 +$14 (+4850%)
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 10¢ $0 $13 +$13 (+10400%)
Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes $0 $10 +$10 (+7300%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes $0 $9 +$8 (+2700%)
Will FREPASNA win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes $0 $5 +$5 (+3750%)
Will João de Deus Mendes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $4 +$4 (+3440%)
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $1 $4 +$4 (+650%)
Will Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $4 +$4 (+3300%)
Will the Union for Central African Renewal win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes $0 $4 +$4 (+900%)
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $4 +$4 (+3000%)
Will Herculano Armando Bequinsa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $3 +$3 (+2550%)
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $3 +$3 (+2550%)
Will Gabriel Fernando Indi win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $3 +$3 (+2500%)
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes $0 $3 +$3 (+3440%)
Will João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $3 +$3 (+2440%)
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the LPL 2026 season? Yes $0 $3 +$3 (+750%)
Will Mário da Silva Júnior win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $3 +$3 (+2150%)
Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes $0 $2 +$2 (+1850%)
Will Petr Yan fight Song Yadong next? Yes $0 $2 +$2 (+1600%)
Will Dricus Du Plessis be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026? Yes $0 $2 +$2 (+5250%)
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $2 +$2 (+550%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $0 $2 +$2 (+600%)
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $0 $2 +$2 (+550%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 386 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump endorse Andrew Cuomo for NYC Mayor? Jun 15 $0 +$9 +955889%
Will BigFuture School be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Nove Jun 15 $0 +$51 +5677322%
Will there be a recount in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 15 $0 +$12 +1453500%
Daegu Pegasus vs. Seoul Thunders Jun 15 $0 +$149 +18623638%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–2 Jun 15 $0 +$27 +3378638%
Boston College Eagles vs. Florida Atlantic Owls Jun 15 $0 +$72 +8953250%
Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be less than 34 Jun 15 $0 +$47 +6774171%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $88,000 on January 21? Jun 15 $0 +$59 +8453171%
LoL: The Bandits vs Frites Esports Club (BO3) - Road Of Legends Tier 1 Jun 15 $0 +$14 +1960729%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in November? Jun 15 $0 +$56 +7977171%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 24°C or higher on Februa Jun 15 $0 +$29 +4795533%
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in November? Jun 15 $0 +$195 +32503217%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on Dec Jun 15 $0 +$3 +577550%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 15? Jun 15 $0 +$25 +5064260%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jun 15 $0 +$188 +37680080%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 18? Jun 15 $0 +$61 +20201267%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 43°F or below on January 17? Jun 15 $0 +$11 +3614200%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Atlantic Division? Jun 15 $0 +$9 +4408850%
Big Bash League: Hobart Hurricanes vs Brisbane Heat (Game 1) Jun 15 $0 +$109 +54446850%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50-51°F on December Jun 15 $0 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 52-53°F on January 2 Jun 15 $0 +$85 +84912700%
Dota 2: Team Rostikfacekid vs Team 9pasha - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Zomblers - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Pacers vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Kasatkina vs. Cristian: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
SA20: Joburg Super Kings vs MI Cape Town (Game 1) - Toss Match Double Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Club Portugalete win on 2025-10-29? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Jacquemot vs. Tomljanovic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 13 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 35-36°F on De Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Valorant: GnG Amazigh vs Ghools Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Canada win the 2025 SailGP Championship Season 5? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 9? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Hon vs. Osorio: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 23°F or below on February 1 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on November 13? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 1 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Mississippi Valley State Delta De Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 26 be between 2,40 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dilan Yeşilgöz out as VVD leader before Netherlands election? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 21 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Games Total: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Set Handicap: Navarro (-1.5) vs Jones (+1.5) Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $410-$420 on the final day of trading o Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Set Handicap: Prizmic (-1.5) vs Heide (+1.5) Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q4 2025 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 48¢ $132 54d
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 54d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi SELL Yes 48¢ $13 69d
Will Viktor Gyokeres be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Pre SELL Yes 48¢ $65 69d
Will MUNDO-GB
 win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National P SELL Yes 56¢ $0 92d
Will Blue Moon win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards SELL Yes 48¢ $0 95d
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–2 SELL Yes 48¢ $26 95d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Atlantic Division? SELL Yes 48¢ $9 98d
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s SELL Yes 66¢ $1 100d
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s SELL Yes 62¢ $7 101d
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s SELL Yes 48¢ $5 106d
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s SELL Yes 48¢ $1 106d
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s SELL Yes 48¢ $8 106d
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s SELL Yes 48¢ $3 106d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 48¢ $111 106d
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s SELL Yes 48¢ $1 106d
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s SELL Yes 48¢ $1 107d
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s SELL Yes 48¢ $5 107d
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s SELL Yes 48¢ $1 107d
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s SELL Yes 48¢ $5 107d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? SELL Yes 48¢ $53 107d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? SELL Yes 48¢ $40 107d
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s SELL Yes 48¢ $5 107d
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s SELL Yes 48¢ $13 107d
Rocket League: Team Falcons vs REDACTED - Game 3 Winner SELL REDACTED 99¢ $20 108d
Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Net SELL Yes 66¢ $13 112d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Fingers Crossed Female - Map 1 Winner BUY Fingers Crossed Female $0 114d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 21? BUY No $0 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 BUY Yes $0 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 BUY Yes $0 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.17 · official $308.61 · 3500 history records