Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:06:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x401a…1000 crypto 345 markets active 1h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,546 (+1%) realized +$2,546 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate74%255W / 88L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$608per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$377
7 days−$376
14 days−$376
30 days−$481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$1,722
politics 3% +$3,056
other 2% +$131
economics 1% −$363
sports 0% −$300
finance 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -16.6% -24.5% 75% 25% -22.5%
≤30d 21 -10.5% -19.1% 76% 33% -15.8%
≤90d 310 -8.3% -17.0% 74% 48% -16.5%
all 343 -4.4% -13.5% 74% 50% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 50% -9.2%
10% -21.7% 29% -17.9%
15% -29.3% 13% -25.8%
20% -36.2% 9% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$414 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,546
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses255 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)343 / 345
History coverage599d
Avg bet$608
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 343 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $407 −$392 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $404 +$61 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $403 +$39 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $503 +$43 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $402 +$36 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $203 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 31 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 31 $301 +$20 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 31 $302 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 31 $305 +$77 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 31 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 30 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 26 $504 +$61 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 25 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 25 $503 +$48 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 24 $506 +$96 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 24 $304 +$71 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 23 $416 −$102 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 22 $405 +$80 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 20 $410 −$285 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 19 $304 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 19 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 19 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 19 $307 −$220 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 19 $507 +$109 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 19 $1,028 +$622 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 19 $274 −$270 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 19 $506 +$107 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 19 $513 +$275 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 19 $511 +$220 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 19 $504 +$66 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 19 $205 +$98 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 19 $506 +$103 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 19 $152 +$44 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 17 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 17 $306 +$102 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 17 $204 +$70 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 17 $203 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 16 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 08 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 07 $308 −$197 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 07 $304 +$60 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 07 $307 +$104 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 07 $301 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 07 $304 +$57 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 05 $404 +$68 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 05 $302 +$31 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 05 $308 −$235 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $407 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $404 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $403 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $503 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 25¢ $307 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $402 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $205 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $203 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-1 BUY 27¢ $511 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $310 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $301 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $302 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $305 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $206 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $504 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $503 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $506 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $304 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $313 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $416 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $405 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $125 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $410 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $304 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $300 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $300.00 · 801 history records