Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:31:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x401e…6fc9
world · 80 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$12,483 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11,931 · open −$259
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,888
Realized+$11,931
Unrealized−$259
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses59 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions24
Markets (closed)76 / 80
History coverage17d
Avg bet$6,502
Trades / day197.3
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 24 History 76 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,188
7 days+$8,168
14 days+$11,522
30 days+$11,931
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1,700 $1,625 −$75 (-4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $358 $258 −$101 (-28%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$3 (-58%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $6,068 +$516 +8%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $8,303 +$219 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $383 +$42 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2,730 +$243 +9%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $9,161 +$119 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $14,343 +$49 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $4,074 +$1,001 +25%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $50,212 +$871 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $6 +$7 +121%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $15,903 +$130 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $1,963 +$51 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $1,412 +$40 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $219 +$31 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $1,352 +$86 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $2,530 +$64 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $20,000 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $385 +$40 +10%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2,076 +$56 +3%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $5,110 +$85 +2%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $167 +$69 +41%
Spread: Syria (-2.5) Jun 08 $19 +$53 +276%
Spread: Syria (-1.5) Jun 08 $29 +$24 +84%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $9 +$7 +81%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $71 +$62 +88%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $8,900 +$2,458 +28%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $28,370 +$821 +3%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $430 +$64 +15%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $401 +$67 +17%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $403 −$10 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $5,123 +$295 +6%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 08 $247 −$15 -6%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $7 +$8 +127%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2,336 +$262 +11%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1,099 +$51 +5%
Spread: Bahrain (-2.5) Jun 08 $18 +$20 +110%
Spread: Bahrain (-1.5) Jun 08 $70 +$43 +60%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $60,000 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $371 +$34 +9%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $560 −$3 -0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2,907 +$205 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $268 +$109 +40%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $433 −$14 -3%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $12 −$9 -74%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $488 −$17 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $1,092 +$407 +37%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 05 $251 +$76 +30%
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? Jun 05 $5 +$3 +61%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $4,829 +$295 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $113,433 +$1,993 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% +$4,338
politics 33% +$1,464
crypto 22% +$2,149
other 3% +$208
finance 3% +$51
sports 2% +$3,064
tech 1% +$278
culture 0% +$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $80 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $80 16m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $264 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $172 25m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $70 47m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $17 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $123 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $124 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $984 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $163 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $116 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $644 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $70 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 13¢ $197 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $159 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +29.1% +16.8% 88% 39% -6.7%
≤30d 76 +15.1% +4.1% 78% 29% -7.3%
≤90d 76 +15.1% +4.1% 78% 29% -7.3%
all 76 +15.1% +4.1% 78% 29% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover197.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.1% 29% -7.3%
10% -5.8% 21% -16.2%
15% ← realistic here -14.9% 16% -24.3%
20% -23.3% 12% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,887.91 · official $1,887.91 (match) · 3500 history records