Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:31:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4023…96df crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$93 (-8%) realized −$91 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%28W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$66
other 39% −$29
sports 10% −$5
politics 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 62 -15.6% -23.6% 45% 40% -19.0%
all 62 -15.6% -23.6% 45% 40% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 40% -19.0%
10% -30.9% 27% -26.7%
15% -37.6% 18% -33.8%
20% -43.7% 11% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$91
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses28 / 34
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage90d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $2 −$1 -25%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 13 $111 −$5 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $35 −$21 -59%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $25 +$78 +311%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 07 $3 −$2 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 07 $2 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 02 $11 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 02 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 02 $35 −$14 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 02 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 02 $57 +$3 +6%
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? Apr 02 $25 −$7 -28%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 02 $10 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 02 $16 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 02 $21 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 02 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 02 $11 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 02 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 02 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 30 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 30 $88 −$37 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 30 $37 −$16 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 27 $10 +$3 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 27 $7 +$8 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 27 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 27 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 27 $18 +$4 +21%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $7 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 27 $6 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 27 $4 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 27 $3 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 38d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 38d
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 38d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 38d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 38d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 38d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 38d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 57¢ $107 38d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 38d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 41d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $111 44d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 70d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 37¢ $103 70d
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 74d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 74d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 79d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $2 79d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 79d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 79d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $5 79d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $6 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $6 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $15 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $18 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.12 · official $48.12 (match) · 200 history records