Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x4023…4b81
sports · 347 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$27 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$50 · open +$50
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$89
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses110 / 217
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions20
Markets (closed)327 / 347
History coverage117d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 20 History 327 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$51
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Over 1¢ 25¢ $2 $48 +$47 (+2400%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Parks Tessa Brockmann 13¢ 76¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+481%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 35¢ 78¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+124%)
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Lucia Bronzetti 19¢ 74¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+287%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 33¢ 48¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+45%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 34¢ 46¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 48¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 32¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Under 23¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Over 35¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 67¢ 52¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Toronto Tempo 10¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Over 36¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Over 83¢ 42¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan Yue Yuan 27¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 30¢ 6¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Toronto Blue Jays 31¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Chicago White Sox 37¢ 3¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Under 88¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Wyoming Cowboys (-8.5) Fresno State Bulldogs 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. VCU Rams George Washington Revolutionaries 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Veronika Erjavec 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Leyre Romero Gormaz 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$5 +249%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2 +$4 +179%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$4 +188%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $2 +$3 +172%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $2 +$14 +711%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $2 +$3 +151%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $2 +$8 +388%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2 +$8 +413%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $2 +$7 +365%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $2 +$4 +188%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +93%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +112%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% −$1
other 4% +$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 1¢ $2 1m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 83¢ $2 26m
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 10¢ $2 28m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 88¢ $2 41m
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $7 47m
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 67¢ $2 56m
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 37¢ $2 56m
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 32¢ $2 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 30¢ $2 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 20¢ $2 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2 1h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $6 1h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 19¢ $1 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 11¢ $2 2h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 34¢ $2 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 22¢ $2 2h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 9¢ $2 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 34¢ $2 2h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 28¢ $2 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 31¢ $2 2h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 32¢ $2 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 39¢ $2 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2 2h
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) BUY New York Mets 50¢ $2 2h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 22¢ $2 2h
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 25¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 -5.9% -14.8% 29% 29% -15.3%
≤30d 207 -5.9% -14.8% 29% 29% -15.3%
≤90d 207 -5.9% -14.8% 29% 29% -15.3%
all 327 -3.1% -12.4% 34% 32% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 32% -13.3%
10% -20.8% 31% -21.6%
15% -28.4% 30% -29.2%
20% -35.4% 28% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.00 · official $90.70 · 519 history records