Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x4025…88b6 tech 1276 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,788 (+0%) realized +$2,812 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1268W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$693per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2,913now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$240
14 days+$298
30 days+$1,066
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$628
tech 25% +$1,013
other 17% +$408
finance 17% +$636
crypto 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -0.6% -10.1% 99% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 183 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 974 +0.1% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.2%
all 1273 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$644) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×123.57 per $1 lost it wins $123.57
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$2,913
Realized+$2,812
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1268 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1273 / 1276
History coverage110d
Avg bet$693
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,252 $1,252 −$1 (-0%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? No 100¢ 98¢ $1,002 $978 −$24 (-2%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $682 $683 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $107 $0 +0%
Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ goals Jun 17 $59 $0 +0%
Morten Thorsby: 1+ goals Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Morten Thorsby: 3+ goals Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Morten Thorsby: 2+ goals Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
David Møller Wolfe: 2+ goals Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
David Møller Wolfe: 1+ goals Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Ali Jasim: 1+ goals Jun 17 $17 $0 +0%
Ali Yousif: 1+ goals Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Ali Yousif: 2+ goals Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $59 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $655 +$1 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? Jun 16 $94 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 16? Jun 16 $220 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 16? Jun 16 $460 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? Jun 16 $440 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? Jun 16 $833 +$1 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,932 +$4 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 16? Jun 16 $601 +$1 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 16? Jun 16 $80 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,212 +$2 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $365 on June 16? Jun 16 $550 +$1 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $580 on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 16? Jun 16 $130 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 on June 16? Jun 16 $147 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $235 on June 16? Jun 16 $130 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 16? Jun 16 $130 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on June 16? Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 16? Jun 16 $149 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $590 on June 16? Jun 16 $337 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? Jun 16 $652 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1,351 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,002 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,252 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $682 1h
Morten Thorsby: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 20h
Morten Thorsby: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 20h
Morten Thorsby: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $78 20h
Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 20h
Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $59 20h
David Møller Wolfe: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $78 20h
David Møller Wolfe: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 20h
Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $78 20h
Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 20h
Ali Yousif: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $50 20h
Ali Yousif: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $28 20h
Ali Jasim: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $17 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $100 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $100 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $107 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $59 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $14 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $655 20h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 24h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $3,932 24h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $833 25h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $652 25h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,212 25h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $440 25h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $365 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $550 25h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 25h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,912.69 · official $2,912.69 (match) · 3294 history records