Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4026…cb1b sports 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%44W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$9
14 days−$4
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$4
crypto 34% −$9
other 5% −$7
world 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -18.1% -25.9% 41% 33% -26.1%
≤30d 35 -15.1% -23.2% 43% 37% -21.0%
≤90d 89 -8.1% -16.9% 49% 38% -14.4%
all 89 -8.1% -16.9% 49% 38% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 38% -14.4%
10% -24.8% 29% -22.6%
15% -32.1% 19% -30.1%
20% -38.8% 18% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses44 / 45
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage59d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Las Vegas Aces win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -86%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 $0 -22%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $2 $0 -19%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 -37%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -81%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $4 +$3 +64%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +102%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -61%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $3 +$5 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 31 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -70%
76ers vs. Knicks May 31 $6 −$4 -63%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $2 +$1 +59%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $1 $0 +20%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $8 $0 +2%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $5 −$2 -32%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $1 +$1 +126%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $1 +$1 +145%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 01 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 01 $3 −$2 -68%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $4 −$2 -37%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $1 +$2 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 01 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 01 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 19h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 28¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.16 · official $1.16 (match) · 317 history records