Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4026…db1e crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-3%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate38%16W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-57.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -46.3% -51.5% 44% 4% -10.7%
≤30d 42 -52.6% -57.1% 38% 10% -15.4%
≤90d 42 -52.6% -57.1% 38% 10% -15.4%
all 42 -52.6% -57.1% 38% 10% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.1% 10% -15.4%
10% -61.2% 5% -23.5%
15% -65.0% 0% -30.9%
20% -68.4% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses16 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage13d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $54 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $54 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $54 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $56 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $55 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $55 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $55 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $56 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $50 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $50 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $56 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $54 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $108 −$50 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $55 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $55 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $100 −$18 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $107 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $111 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $107 −$6 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $42 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $53 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $52 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $46 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $54 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $54 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $54 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $18 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $38 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $58 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records