Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
40 0x4027…7982 other 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$540 (+0%) realized +$539 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate20%30W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$1,677per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$25
14 days−$50
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$47
politics 36% −$117
sports 10% +$584
culture 3% −$7
economics 2% −$6
world 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 45 +0.5% -9.0% 11% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 113 -4.2% -13.3% 8% 5% -9.8%
all 151 +5.9% -4.2% 20% 16% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 16% -9.3%
10% -13.4% 16% -18.0%
15% -21.7% 15% -25.9%
20% -29.4% 13% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,361) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$10 · ×5.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized+$539
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses30 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,677
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $226 $226 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $284 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $1,950 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $1,722 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,537 −$5 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $1,849 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $3,809 −$5 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $4,224 −$5 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $1,419 −$2 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 11 $1,644 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,195 −$4 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,526 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $6,021 −$6 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,479 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,454 −$2 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,468 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,566 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $3,340 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $6,718 −$7 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $1,406 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $2,361 −$4 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $52 −$52 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $3,158 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $60 +$71 +119%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,672 −$3 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $1,581 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $467 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 02 $886 +$1 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $3,483 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,128 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $5,934 −$6 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,392 −$3 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 26 $1,096 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,605 −$4 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,269 −$2 -0%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 25 $58 −$58 -100%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $48 +$53 +109%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $59 +$59 +101%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $1,697 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1,681 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $5,389 −$6 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,641 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $283 2h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $284 3h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $262 22h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $263 24h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $286 27h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $287 29h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $246 45h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $246 47h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $239 2d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $240 2d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $215 2d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $215 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 3d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,639 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,642 4d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,416 6d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,419 6d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $1,641 8d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $1,644 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,646 9d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,648 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,523 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,526 9d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,651 9d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,653 9d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,568 9d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,570 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,477 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,479 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.17 · official $226.17 (match) · 513 history records