Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:16:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
40 0x4027…30b9 sports 102 markets active 1d ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$569 (+7%) realized +$569 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%43W / 59L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days−$171
14 days−$259
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$661
other 10% −$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -8.8% -17.5% 33% 33% -24.1%
≤30d 42 -33.2% -39.5% 29% 29% -12.3%
≤90d 78 +2.9% -6.9% 40% 40% -2.5%
all 102 +13.5% +2.7% 42% 42% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 42% -4.7%
10% -7.1% 42% -13.8%
15% -16.1% 42% -22.1%
20% -24.3% 41% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$82 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$569
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses43 / 59
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage246d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 25 $166 −$163 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $115 +$353 +307%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 24 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $127 −$127 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 20 $109 −$109 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 20 $116 −$116 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $95 +$136 +144%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $113 +$79 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $111 −$111 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $52 +$86 +165%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $162 +$257 +158%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Jun 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 11 $63 −$63 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-02? Jun 11 $69 −$69 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 11 $57 −$57 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 11 $56 −$56 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 11 $81 −$81 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 11 $120 −$120 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 11 $142 −$142 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 11 $68 −$68 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $241 +$238 +99%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $242 +$291 +120%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 06 $161 +$104 +65%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $192 +$110 +57%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $100 +$92 +92%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $127 +$210 +165%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury May 31 $95 −$5 -5%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries May 31 $56 +$39 +70%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings May 15 $45 +$65 +145%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $10 +$20 +197%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $68 +$134 +197%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $116 +$85 +73%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $59 +$57 +97%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 23 $210 −$210 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $86 +$224 +262%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 17¢ $97 28h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 62¢ $68 29h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever SELL Phoenix Mercury 100¢ $468 29h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Phoenix Mercury 24¢ $115 32h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Indiana Fever 37¢ $125 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $101 6d
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Toronto Tempo 100¢ $231 6d
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 40¢ $95 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $193 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $113 6d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 49¢ $109 7d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 10¢ $116 10d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $127 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $138 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $52 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $111 12d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 21¢ $63 13d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $419 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $80 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $82 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 100¢ $479 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 41¢ $69 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $172 15d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Dallas Wings 39¢ $57 16d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Dallas Wings 39¢ $63 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $532 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 43¢ $138 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $103 17d
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty BUY Indiana Fever 43¢ $142 19d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 60¢ $161 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 224 history records