Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4027…fe31 other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70 (-7%) realized −$96 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$150
sports 11% +$52
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -36.5% -42.5% 12% 12% -29.5%
≤30d 8 -36.5% -42.5% 12% 12% -29.5%
≤90d 8 -36.5% -42.5% 12% 12% -29.5%
all 8 -36.5% -42.5% 12% 12% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.5% 12% -29.5%
10% -48.0% 12% -36.2%
15% -53.1% 12% -42.4%
20% -57.7% 12% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$25 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $130 $141 +$11 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $105 $104 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $40 $55 +$15 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $218 −$43 -20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 −$32 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$52 +51%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $29 −$19 -68%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $57 −$28 -49%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $74 −$3 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 44¢ $51 6m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $108 22m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $175 24m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 2¢ $10 6h
Declan Rice: 1+ assists AND Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY 8¢ $21 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 16¢ $21 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 66¢ $101 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $29 2d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $29 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $112 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $134 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $57 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $41 5d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $71 5d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $74 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.75 · official $370.75 · 30 history records