Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

40 0x4029…c8b3 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$491 (-30%) realized −$475 · open −$16

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%4W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$69per market

Trades / day27.0pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+13.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+25.7%	+13.8%	33%	33%	-63.1%
≤30d	12	+25.7%	+13.8%	33%	33%	-63.1%
≤90d	12	+25.7%	+13.8%	33%	33%	-63.1%
all	12	+25.7%	+13.8%	33%	33%	-63.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover27.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+13.8%	33%	-63.1%
10% ← realistic here	+2.9%	33%	-66.6%
15%	-7.1%	33%	-69.9%
20%	-16.2%	33%	-72.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -67% → late +119% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$62 vs −$115 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.27 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$128

Realized−$475

Unrealized−$16

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses4 / 8

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions6

Markets (closed)12 / 24

History coverage1d

Avg bet$69

Trades / day27.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals	Yes	4¢	3¢	$50	$39	−$11 (-22%)
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals	Yes	4¢	4¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+1%)
Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals	Yes	5¢	5¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$19	$18	−$2 (-8%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$10	$7	−$2 (-23%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals	Jun 29	$41	+$61	+147%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 29	$31	−$30	-98%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals	Jun 29	$62	−$60	-97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$17	+$14	+79%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan?	Jun 29	$4	+$32	+786%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals	Jun 29	$48	−$48	-100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 29	$147	+$143	+97%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	Jun 29	$540	−$530	-98%
Raphinha: 1+ goals	Jun 29	$47	−$46	-97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 29	$151	−$149	-98%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals	Jun 29	$50	−$49	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	41m
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals	BUY	8¢	$40	1h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals AND Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals	BUY	8¢	$50	1h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists AND Netherlands v	BUY	6¢	$47	1h
Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	5¢	$21	1h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	4¢	$26	1h
Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	4¢	$51	1h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$102	1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: France	BUY	2¢	$34	3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	19¢	$31	4h
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	11¢	$62	4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY	29¢	$150	4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco?	BUY Yes	2¢	$21	4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco?	BUY Yes	6¢	$20	4h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	40¢	$41	4h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	28¢	$87	5h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Brazil w	BUY	17¢	$49	6h
Raphinha: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	3¢	$47	6h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	48¢	$268	6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$147	6h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	47¢	$151	6h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals	BUY Yes	3¢	$50	6h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	10¢	$48	7h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	37¢	$185	7h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	11¢	$4	7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	19¢	$5	7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	55¢	$17	7h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.40 · official $261.42 · 31 history records