Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
40 0x4029…05d3 sports 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL −$496 (-17%) realized −$506 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%38W / 48L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day29.6pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$110
14 days+$225
30 days+$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$236
crypto 38% −$212
other 15% +$235
world 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +87.4% +69.6% 34% 34% +3.0%
≤30d 86 +47.3% +33.2% 44% 38% -0.4%
≤90d 86 +47.3% +33.2% 44% 38% -0.4%
all 86 +47.3% +33.2% 44% 38% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +33.2% 38% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here +20.5% 35% -10.0%
15% +8.8% 31% -18.7%
20% -1.8% 30% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +85% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$21 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$506
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses38 / 48
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 124
History coverage10d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Netherlands 31¢ 40¢ $35 $45 +$10 (+27%)
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Netherlands 16¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24 Jun 25 $25 +$95 +386%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $45 −$44 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 +$7 +144%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $7 +$26 +359%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9 +$16 +174%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$33 +216%
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) AND Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $3 +$74 +2395%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-4.5) Jun 21 $9 −$9 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $69 −$69 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $36 −$35 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $16 +$23 +141%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Neth Jun 21 $25 +$55 +223%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $40 +$42 +106%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 20 $9 −$6 -68%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $27 −$26 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $28 −$17 -60%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Jun 20 $19 +$59 +301%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$58 +114%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Canada (-1 Jun 19 $8 +$92 +1124%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $41 +$4 +10%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $66 +$2 +2%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 18 $37 −$2 -5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Canada (-1 Jun 18 $21 −$3 -15%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AN Jun 18 $7 +$67 +911%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$1 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$35 +138%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? AND Jun 17 $41 +$75 +184%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $26 +$52 +203%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) SELL Netherlands 33¢ $50 44m
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 24¢ $25 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 31¢ $36 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) BUY Netherlands 16¢ $26 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $19 2h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Will J BUY $9 7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24 SELL 70¢ $120 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24 BUY 14¢ $25 22h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes $5 28h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil w BUY 14¢ $10 28h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026- BUY $7 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 29h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Panama vs. BUY $11 2d
Spread: England (-5.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. DR BUY $8 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. DR BUY 13¢ $31 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $45 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $36 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.64 · official $69.04 · 301 history records