Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x402c…4e11 crypto 422 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$165 (-2%) realized −$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate61%263W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$39
14 days−$70
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -58.5% -62.5% 29% 0% -22.1%
≤30d 243 -15.7% -23.7% 56% 25% -13.9%
≤90d 348 -9.8% -18.4% 64% 36% -13.3%
all 433 -6.7% -15.6% 61% 33% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 33% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 19% -20.3%
15% -31.1% 9% -28.0%
20% -37.8% 5% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses263 / 170
Open positions0
Markets (closed)433 / 422
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 433 Trades
no open positions (68 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -244%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1227%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$10 -6886%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $46 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$7 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$7 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 05 $69 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 05 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 05 $46 −$16 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 05 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $25 −$15 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 05 $22 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$5 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 05 $45 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 05 $33 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 05 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 05 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 05 $43 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 05 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 05 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 05 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 05 $60 −$35 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 04 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 04 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 04 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 04 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 04 $14 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 04 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 04 $27 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 04 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 04 $12 +$3 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records