Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:39:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x402c…0f6d other 41 markets active 22d ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (384 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8,588 (+17%) realized +$8,606 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +154% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +96% what you keep after slip
Net edge+96%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%130W / 301L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,244per market
Trades / day383.8pace
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$252
world 36% +$1,330
tech 4% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (384 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+130.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 397 +155.9% +131.6% 28% 26% -43.2%
≤30d 431 +154.2% +130.0% 30% 26% -10.5%
≤90d 431 +154.2% +130.0% 30% 26% -10.5%
all 431 +154.2% +130.0% 30% 26% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover383.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +130.0% 26% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here +108.0% 25% -19.1%
15% +87.9% 23% -26.9%
20% +69.4% 22% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +154% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -60% → late +367% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
42.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$37 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$8,606
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses130 / 301
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)431 / 41
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$1,244
Trades / day383.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 431 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $62 $65 +$4 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $18 $22 +$3 (+18%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 86¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+16%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-89%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-81%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 20¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-96%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 8¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 415 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 29 $0 +$19 +5528%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 29 $17 −$146 -838%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 29 $16 +$76 +478%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 29 $21 −$27 -128%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 29 $1 $0 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 29 $20 −$14 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Jun 29 $10 −$16 -160%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 29 $6 +$5 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 29 $3 −$71 -2191%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Jun 29 $0 −$1 -4267%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 29 $18 −$132 -736%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 29 $1 $0 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Jun 29 $0 −$105 -168639%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$37 -3561%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 29 $54 −$141 -261%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Jun 29 $20 −$45 -229%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Jun 29 $0 −$1 -9078%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$32 -388%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 29 $1 +$183 +35306%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 29 $2 −$22 -1097%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 29 $83 +$83 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 29 $0 +$3 +4250%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 29 $25 −$214 -869%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 29 $0 +$1 +7536%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 29 $0 $0 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Jun 29 $3 −$18 -662%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 29 $11 −$29 -275%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 23? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Jun 29 $110 −$190 -173%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $0 +$2 +508%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 29 $1 +$52 +7946%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Jun 29 $0 +$3 +9548%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Jun 29 $115 −$512 -447%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jun 29 $0 $0 -105%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 29 $14 −$8 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 29 $7 +$93 +1407%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 29 $24 −$23 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Jun 29 $25 −$76 -306%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 29 $12 +$28 +229%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 29 $0 +$7 +5970%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 29 $17 −$60 -341%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 29 $13 −$15 -111%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Jun 29 $98 −$137 -139%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Jun 29 $19 −$40 -208%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 29 $253 +$65 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $81 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $72 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $61 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $10 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $11 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $214 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $437 25d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $190 25d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 25d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 25d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $35 25d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 25d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 25d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 25d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 25d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 25d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $23 25d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 20¢ $4 25d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $23 25d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $40 25d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $29 25d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 25d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $100 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $100 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.35 · official $96.78 · 3500 history records