Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:57:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x403a…376c other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,198 (+5%) realized +$2,366 · open −$1,168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$1,314per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$204est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$5,450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,001
7 days+$1,049
14 days+$982
30 days+$982
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$749
sports 46% −$935
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -13.2% -21.4% 40% 30% -3.3%
≤30d 11 -18.8% -26.6% 36% 27% -3.7%
≤90d 11 -18.8% -26.6% 36% 27% -3.7%
all 11 -18.8% -26.6% 36% 27% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 27% -3.7%
10% -33.6% 18% -12.9%
15% -40.0% 18% -21.3%
20% -45.9% 18% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$825 vs −$331 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$5,450
Realized+$2,366
Unrealized−$1,168
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$204
Open positions6
Markets (closed)11 / 17
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1,314
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Under 82¢ 80¢ $5,480 $5,370 −$110 (-2%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 28¢ 7¢ $280 $70 −$210 (-75%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Yes 23¢ 7¢ $23 $7 −$15 (-68%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $150 $1 −$149 (-99%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Under 36¢ 0¢ $585 $1 −$584 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $306 +$614 +201%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,433 −$1,246 -87%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $309 −$257 -83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7,127 +$1,009 +14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $566 −$199 -35%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $308 −$149 -48%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,534 +$1,630 +106%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,181 +$48 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $90 −$68 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 28¢ $411 4m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 70¢ $980 5m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 28¢ $224 5m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 28¢ $196 5m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $1,503 6m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $1,005 14m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $2,011 15m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $204 18m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 35¢ $393 24m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $16 29m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $7 29m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 28¢ $286 30m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 18h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 99¢ $920 18h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 18h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 32¢ $204 18h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $187 18h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $309 21h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $515 21h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 0¢ $52 21h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $85 21h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 21h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 21h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 21h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,450.01 · official $4,839.24 · 69 history records