Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:05:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x403a…3173 sports 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$53 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate68%75W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$45
other 9% −$45
tech 1% −$15
finance 0% +$13
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +26.6% +14.5% 75% 75% +14.0%
≤30d 4 +26.6% +14.5% 75% 75% +14.0%
≤90d 111 +1.2% -8.5% 68% 66% -10.8%
all 111 +1.2% -8.5% 68% 66% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 66% -10.8%
10% -17.2% 46% -19.3%
15% -25.2% 32% -27.1%
20% -32.6% 12% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$42 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses75 / 36
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage67d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 Over 47¢ 61¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+30%)
Spread: New York Liberty (-4.5) New York Liberty 60¢ 55¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 −$5 -31%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $25 +$7 +27%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $13 +$10 +79%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $29 +$9 +31%
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5) May 09 $93 −$64 -68%
Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5) May 09 $50 +$13 +26%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5) May 09 $100 +$17 +17%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $29 −$17 -57%
Francavilla: Gustavo Heide vs August Holmgren May 09 $70 −$23 -33%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Linda Noskova May 09 $50 +$15 +30%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Solana Sierra May 09 $60 +$7 +12%
Wuxi: Yunchaokete Bu vs Jie Cui May 09 $49 +$8 +17%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 09 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $60 +$9 +15%
Wuxi: Mark Lajal vs Soon-Woo Kwon May 09 $50 +$24 +48%
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 3.5 May 09 $40 +$24 +60%
Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5) May 09 $51 −$10 -19%
Auckland FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $13 +$9 +71%
Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5) May 09 $40 +$10 +26%
Jiujiang: Zhuoxuan Bai vs En-Shuo Liang May 09 $50 −$22 -43%
Jeju SK FC vs. FC Seoul: O/U 1.5 May 09 $9 +$4 +43%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $40 +$19 +48%
Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5) May 09 $35 −$35 -99%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm May 09 $44 +$31 +70%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $30 +$13 +43%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) May 09 $39 −$38 -98%
Spread: AC Monza (-1.5) May 09 $30 +$7 +23%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Sakkari (+1.5) May 09 $15 +$6 +39%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto May 09 $30 +$7 +24%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste May 08 $30 +$16 +53%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tallon Griekspoor vs Alexander Blockx May 08 $40 +$18 +43%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $40 −$27 -66%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Eva Lys May 08 $31 +$9 +29%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Aleksandar Kov May 08 $30 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Mauthausen: Lukas Neumayer vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
La Bisbal: Xinyu Wang vs Kaitlin Quevedo Apr 28 $14 −$12 -85%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $29 −$6 -21%
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5) Apr 19 $4 −$3 -76%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $17 −$12 -74%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Apr 19 $52 −$35 -67%
Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5) Apr 19 $52 +$10 +19%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Muchova (+1.5) Apr 19 $37 +$15 +42%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Apr 19 $236 −$236 -100%
Oeiras 3: Maja Chwalinska vs Sinja Kraus Apr 19 $24 +$13 +52%
Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-04-17? Apr 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 1h
Spread: New York Liberty (-4.5) BUY New York Liberty 60¢ $25 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay $11 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay $15 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 55¢ $13 8h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 78¢ $25 8h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 99¢ $38 8h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 75¢ $29 8h
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5) SELL Bayer 04 Leverkusen 25¢ $29 43d
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5) BUY Bayer 04 Leverkusen 78¢ $93 43d
Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5) SELL Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 100¢ $63 43d
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $101 43d
Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5) SELL VfL Bochum 100¢ $118 43d
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 30¢ $13 43d
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $29 43d
Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5) BUY VfL Bochum 85¢ $100 43d
Francavilla: Gustavo Heide vs August Holmgren SELL Gustavo Heide 55¢ $47 43d
Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5) BUY Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 79¢ $50 43d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $66 43d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Solana Sierra SELL Coco Gauff 100¢ $67 43d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Solana Sierra BUY Coco Gauff 89¢ $60 43d
Wuxi: Yunchaokete Bu vs Jie Cui SELL Yunchaokete Bu 100¢ $57 43d
Francavilla: Gustavo Heide vs August Holmgren BUY Gustavo Heide 80¢ $70 43d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Andrey Rublev 100¢ $73 43d
Wuxi: Yunchaokete Bu vs Jie Cui BUY Yunchaokete Bu 85¢ $49 43d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 76¢ $50 43d
Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 98¢ $69 43d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Andrey Rublev 68¢ $50 43d
Wuxi: Mark Lajal vs Soon-Woo Kwon SELL Soon-Woo Kwon 100¢ $75 43d
Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.10 · official $55.10 (match) · 233 history records