Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:25:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

40 0x403c…2321 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 196d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,150 (+23%) realized +$1,152 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip

Net edge+13%after slip

Net WR65%break-even

Win rate65%11W / 6L

Drawdown19%max

Avg bet$182per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit4%portable

Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$188

7 days+$1,179

14 days+$1,457

30 days+$1,457

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +65%

net ROI/market (all)+13.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+27.6%	+15.5%	73%	73%	+30.0%
≤30d	16	+22.4%	+10.7%	62%	62%	+24.9%
≤90d	16	+22.4%	+10.7%	62%	62%	+24.9%
all	17	+25.0%	+13.1%	65%	65%	+25.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.1%	65%	+25.5%
10%	+2.2%	65%	+13.5%
15%	-7.6%	53%	+2.6%
20%	-16.7%	53%	-7.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 37% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +25% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -7% → late +53% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$191 vs −$96 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.65 per $1 lost it wins $3.65

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage

Net worth$297

Realized+$1,152

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses11 / 6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 27

History coverage196d

Avg bet$182

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown19%

Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$300	$297	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$229	+$74	+32%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$274	+$185	+67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$101	−$70	-70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$204	+$299	+147%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026	Jun 18	$51	+$15	+29%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$571	+$385	+67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$80	+79%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$236	+$154	+65%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$565	+$342	+60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$330	−$246	-74%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$39	−$39	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$680	+$386	+57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 14	$51	−$4	-9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 14	$88	−$3	-4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$214	−$211	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$102	+$111	+109%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-08?	Dec 09	$100	+$67	+67%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$303	2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	75¢	$229	4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	21¢	$31	28h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	59¢	$274	29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	32¢	$77	30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	45¢	$51	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026	SELL	53¢	$66	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026	BUY	40¢	$51	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$571	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	81¢	$389	5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? A	BUY	37¢	$96	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	48¢	$236	5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	96¢	$907	6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	18¢	$84	6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	59¢	$565	6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$139	6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN	BUY	26¢	$51	6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A	BUY	36¢	$102	6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$191	6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY	47¢	$102	6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	47¢	$39	6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14	BUY	46¢	$51	7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY	40¢	$204	7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	54¢	$101	7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	55¢	$101	7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,066	7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$132	8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL	46¢	$46	8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL	63¢	$84	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.16 · official $297.16 (match) · 44 history records