Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:05:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x4040…1276 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$274 (+3%) realized +$274 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate100%18W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$479per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$3
sports 30% +$266
crypto 22% +$2
tech 14% +$2
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +37.5% +24.4% 100% 50% +0.2%
≤90d 16 +9.5% -0.9% 100% 12% -6.5%
all 18 +8.5% -1.9% 100% 11% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 11% -6.7%
10% -11.3% 11% -15.7%
15% -19.8% 11% -23.8%
20% -27.7% 6% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$808) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$274
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses18 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage95d
Avg bet$479
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,079 +$1 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $1,078 +$1 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 30 $250 +$250 +100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $20 +$10 +50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 21? May 23 $75 $0 +0%
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the top US Netflix show this week May 20 $89 $0 +0%
Will "Legends: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? May 20 $149 $0 +0%
Will "Devil May Cry: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? May 20 $244 $0 +0%
Will "Lord of the Flies" be the top US Netflix show this week? May 20 $260 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $285 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $530 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $813 +$2 +0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 24 $813 +$1 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 14 $808 +$4 +0%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $807 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 2? Apr 03 $807 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 23 above $2.00? Mar 29 $344 +$1 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 23 above $450? Mar 29 $462 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $195 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $1,079 20d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,078 28d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 3¢ $1 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 3¢ $2 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 3¢ $11 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 3¢ $1 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 3¢ $10 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 3¢ $2 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 3¢ $1 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 3¢ $1 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 3¢ $1 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 2¢ $2 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 2¢ $4 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 2¢ $14 29d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 50¢ $250 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $75 42d
Will "Devil May Cry: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $36 42d
Will "Devil May Cry: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $207 42d
Will "Legends: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $149 42d
Will "Lord of the Flies" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $260 42d
Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the top US Netflix show this week BUY No 100¢ $89 42d
Will Azerbaijan win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $285 49d
Will Azerbaijan be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY No 100¢ $530 49d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $813 62d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Weibo Gaming 100¢ $813 68d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $808 77d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $807 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $807 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.40 · official $199.40 (match) · 52 history records