Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4041…97fa world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$16 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$4
other 19% +$8
sports 11% +$1
politics 5% $0
weather 5% +$4
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 12 +8.5% -1.9% 33% 17% -8.8%
≤90d 13 +7.8% -2.5% 31% 15% -8.8%
all 35 +0.1% -9.5% 43% 11% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 11% -7.6%
10% -18.1% 11% -16.5%
15% -26.0% 6% -24.6%
20% -33.3% 6% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage471d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 68¢ $36 $38 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $76 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $35 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $28 +$7 +26%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $32 −$3 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $37 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 22 $17 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $9 $0 -0%
US military action against Iran by Saturday? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Jun 03 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $29 $0 -1%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 23 $30 $0 +0%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 22 $27 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 21? Mar 20 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 19 $27 +$1 +4%
Duterte released from custody by Friday? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 'Novocaine' gross less than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February? Mar 13 $17 +$10 +55%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $13 +$4 +27%
Syracuse vs. SMU Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'mandate' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the U Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Stonehill vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Maryland vs. Michigan Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $14 9h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 36¢ $34 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 37¢ $35 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $36 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $17 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $10 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $23 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $33 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 65¢ $16 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 65¢ $14 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $32 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $23 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $13 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $36 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $2 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $16 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $5 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $29 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.36 · official $37.67 (match) · 108 history records