Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:58:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4042…edcb world 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%23W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$9
other 26% −$9
sports 15% −$2
politics 14% −$1
economics 5% $0
finance 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 30 -0.8% -10.2% 30% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 74 -2.0% -11.3% 31% 0% -9.8%
all 76 -4.6% -13.7% 30% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -10.1%
10% -21.9% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses23 / 53
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)76 / 80
History coverage531d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $65 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 −$1 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $13 −$1 -8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $81 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $105 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $82 −$4 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $120 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $73 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $76 −$2 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $50 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $68 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $71 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $28 −$3 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $61 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $155 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $38 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $125 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $2 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $51 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $3 −$1 -16%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $44 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $39 $0 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $129 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $128 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $35 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $35 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $30 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $29 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $34 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $34 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $8 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $8 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $21 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $25 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 53¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $34 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $4 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $5 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $22 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $10 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $22 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $32 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $32 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $15 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.43 · official $0.00 · 375 history records