Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:53:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
40 0x4044…7e11 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$139 (-25%) realized −$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$79
world 22% −$2
crypto 10% −$55
culture 6% −$3
politics 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-64.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 11 -60.4% -64.1% 0% 0% -45.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.1% 0% -45.8%
10% -67.6% 0% -51.0%
15% -70.7% 0% -55.7%
20% -73.6% 0% -60.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$13 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage535d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? No 91¢ 91¢ $211 $210 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
AS Roma vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 02 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Dec 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin ETF Flows on November 24? Nov 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5 Nov 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 7AM ET Nov 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 30 $22 −$1 -5%
League of Legends: OKSavingsBank BRION vs. DRX Jul 29 $44 −$44 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Jul 28 $122 −$2 -1%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jul 27 $34 −$2 -6%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 25 $35 −$3 -7%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? BUY No 91¢ $211 1h
AS Roma vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $16 107d
XRP Up or Down - December 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $14 174d
Bitcoin ETF Flows on November 24? BUY Positive 63¢ $19 204d
Stade Brestois 29 vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $16 205d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 7AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $22 210d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 41¢ $21 229d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 43¢ $22 229d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? SELL No 70¢ $49 324d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? BUY No 71¢ $49 324d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 32¢ $32 325d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 34¢ $34 325d
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes 36¢ $33 326d
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 38¢ $35 326d
League of Legends: OKSavingsBank BRION vs. DRX BUY DRX 44¢ $44 327d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? SELL Yes 59¢ $71 328d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? BUY Yes 60¢ $72 328d
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 447d
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 535d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.39 · official $210.39 (match) · 25 history records