Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4045…3307 sports 256 markets active 0h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$502 (-3%) realized −$501 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%113W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$123
14 days+$50
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$183
other 23% −$399
crypto 4% +$24
world 1% +$3
culture 0% +$14
politics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -15.5% -23.5% 33% 33% +31.3%
≤30d 62 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 37% -7.3%
≤90d 169 -17.9% -25.7% 36% 34% -24.6%
all 253 -8.0% -16.8% 45% 42% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 42% -12.1%
10% -24.8% 38% -20.5%
15% -32.0% 33% -28.2%
20% -38.7% 27% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$42 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized−$501
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses113 / 140
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions3
Markets (closed)253 / 256
History coverage301d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 78¢ $140 $149 +$9 (+6%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $130 $124 −$6 (-5%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $76 +$65 +86%
Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $193 −$144 -75%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $171 +$106 +62%
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $24 −$2 -8%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $111 +$144 +130%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $41 −$6 -15%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $86 −$85 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Zverev Jun 07 $70 +$15 +21%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $55 +$15 +27%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 02 $29 −$23 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 02 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 02 $17 +$22 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$11 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 02 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 02 $22 +$16 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 02 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 02 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$7 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 31 $52 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 31 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 31 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 31 $36 +$34 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5) May 31 $24 −$24 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $35 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 28 $1 +$3 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 28 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 28 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $13 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 28 $11 +$27 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 28 $10 +$14 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $141 19m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $141 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 53¢ $76 3h
Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL No 2¢ $0 4h
Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 41¢ $10 4h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 28¢ $41 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 23¢ $47 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 74¢ $152 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 2d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $171 3d
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 5d
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $24 5d
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 5d
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 25¢ $35 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 6d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 63¢ $86 10d
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Zverev SELL Zverev 100¢ $85 10d
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Zverev BUY Zverev 82¢ $70 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 91¢ $70 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 71¢ $55 10d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 26¢ $17 10d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.97 · official $282.97 (match) · 656 history records