Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:45:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
40 0x4047…7293 other 152 markets active 16h ago coverage 75d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$389,204 (+61%) realized +$384,281 · open +$4,923
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%91W / 37L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$4,218per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Fees−$1,691est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$13,670now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,596
7 days+$2,603
14 days+$19,268
30 days+$152,641
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 52% +$190,806
world 21% +$25,978
other 13% +$9,815
sports 11% −$1,665
tech 1% −$7,794
politics 1% +$554
weather 0% −$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +526.9% +467.2% 75% 75% +39.8%
≤30d 13 +221.1% +190.5% 92% 85% +91.6%
≤90d 128 +39.7% +26.4% 71% 43% +26.2%
all 128 +39.7% +26.4% 71% 43% +26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.4% 43% +26.2%
10% +14.3% 30% +14.1%
15% ← realistic here +3.3% 26% +3.1%
20% -6.9% 21% -7.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$3,361) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,642 vs −$749 · ×3.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.92 per $1 lost it wins $8.92
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$13,670
Realized+$384,281
Unrealized+$4,923
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses91 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$1,691
Open positions33
Markets (closed)128 / 152
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$4,218
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 4¢ 72¢ $159 $3,177 +$3,019 (+1902%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 41¢ 99¢ $911 $2,205 +$1,294 (+142%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 22¢ 56¢ $489 $1,251 +$762 (+156%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 92¢ 99¢ $921 $994 +$73 (+8%)
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 94¢ 84¢ $1,041 $939 −$102 (-10%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? No 88¢ 100¢ $799 $906 +$107 (+13%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? No 90¢ 100¢ $815 $905 +$90 (+11%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $159 $600 +$441 (+278%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 100¢ $472 $553 +$81 (+17%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? No 80¢ 94¢ $424 $500 +$76 (+18%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $159 $364 +$206 (+130%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 3¢ 6¢ $137 $237 +$101 (+74%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $211 $220 +$9 (+4%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 70¢ 92¢ $168 $219 +$51 (+30%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,200 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $160 $168 +$8 (+5%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? No 28¢ 100¢ $33 $119 +$85 (+257%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 43¢ 100¢ $22 $51 +$29 (+133%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 50¢ 22¢ $108 $48 −$60 (-55%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $120 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 88¢ 100¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+14%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $159 $29 −$130 (-82%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 50¢ 100¢ $14 $27 +$14 (+100%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $159 $27 −$132 (-83%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $159 $24 −$134 (-85%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $159 $24 −$134 (-85%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Jun 29 $2 +$911 +56170%
Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in April? Jun 29 $11 −$12 -108%
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 29 $408 +$697 +171%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 23 $2,746 +$1,007 +37%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 22 $393 +$26 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 16 $14,917 +$16,639 +112%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 11 $1,155 +$2,988 +259%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 09 $46,075 +$76,492 +166%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 08 $57,663 +$50,182 +87%
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 06 $8,665 +$1,471 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $2,477 +$1,853 +75%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $1,221 +$387 +32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 30 $85 +$2 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 30 $0 $0 +127%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 29 $18,963 +$21,158 +112%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? May 25 $3,385 +$45 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? May 23 $159 +$28 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $4,413 +$813 +18%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $470 +$1,345 +286%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $320 +$66 +21%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 08 $4,863 −$1,365 -28%
Will the BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026 Grand Final be a sweep? May 03 $99 −$15 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 02 $22,200 +$1,881 +8%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 02 $7 +$15 +203%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 02 $5,926 −$5,926 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 02 $2,497 −$2,397 -96%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 02 $3,390 +$138 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 02 $696 +$67 +10%
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 02 $1,164 +$42 +4%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 02 $3,903 −$3,422 -88%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? May 01 $66 −$27 -40%
Will Vitality make it to the BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026 Grand Final? May 01 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $2,933 −$545 -19%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner May 01 $18 +$12 +70%
Will there be a reverse sweep in the BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026 gran May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? May 01 $1,561 +$46 +3%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? May 01 $3,997 +$167 +4%
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $92 +$5 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 01 $11,895 +$224 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 01 $5 +$2 +39%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? May 01 $911 +$152 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 01 $14,294 +$11,559 +81%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 01 $3,391 +$125 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 01 $229 +$123 +54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? May 01 $1,295 +$548 +42%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $3,550 +$1,450 +41%
Will Apple reach $280 in April? Apr 30 $10 +$1 +8%
Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in April? Apr 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Apple reach $292 in April? Apr 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $990 15h
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $64 5d
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $29 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $60 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $16 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $50 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $19 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $15 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $20 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $789 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $140 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $135 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $12 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $11 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $23 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $9 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $18 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,669.96 · official $13,669.23 (match) · 3500 history records