Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
40 0x4048…5c72 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate84%27W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$5
14 days+$14
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$81
world 22% +$46
tech 13% −$39
weather 11% +$26
finance 5% −$35
sports 2% −$35
politics 1% −$11
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 86% 43% -8.9%
≤30d 16 +2.8% -7.0% 88% 44% -7.8%
≤90d 32 +11.1% +0.6% 84% 53% -8.0%
all 32 +11.1% +0.6% 84% 53% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 53% -8.0%
10% -9.1% 16% -16.8%
15% -17.9% 12% -24.8%
20% -25.9% 6% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$27 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses27 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage62d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 92¢ 90¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 21? No 92¢ 100¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $98 +$12 +12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $92 +$6 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $69 +$24 +34%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $57 +$11 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $54 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 18 $45 +$7 +16%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 +$1 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 17 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$5 +13%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 +$5 +13%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $81 −$45 -56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $12 −$11 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $36 +$2 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $38 −$38 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 2? May 02 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 27 above $420? May 01 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 27 above $430? May 01 $69 +$1 +1%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 01 $28 +$2 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $29 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 28 $31 +$8 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $103 +$11 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $50 +$10 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $10 +$6 +64%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 21? Apr 22 $29 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 21? Apr 21 $18 +$9 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 92¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $50 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $60 4h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $98 21h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $92 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 74¢ $69 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $57 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 95¢ $54 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 87¢ $35 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 96¢ $34 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $45 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $30 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $40 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $35 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $30 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 41¢ $36 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 10d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 32d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $81 33d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 33d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4? BUY Up 76¢ $38 48d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 27 above $430? BUY No 99¢ $69 51d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 27 above $420? BUY No 89¢ $10 51d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 2? BUY No 82¢ $10 51d
Kash Patel out by April 30? BUY No 92¢ $14 54d
Kash Patel out by April 30? BUY No 92¢ $14 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 54d
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 54d
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $38 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.22 · official $119.22 (match) · 68 history records