Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
40 0x404a…575d other 509 markets active 0h ago coverage 1091d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,430 (+8%) realized +$8,123 · open −$693
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%217W / 244L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$798est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$3,945now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1091d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$3,387
other 15% −$593
crypto 8% +$1,317
politics 4% −$552
world 0% −$93
tech 0% −$58
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -39.8% -45.5% 41% 27% -15.3%
≤30d 145 -24.9% -32.0% 40% 30% -8.6%
≤90d 264 -16.1% -24.1% 44% 34% -6.1%
all 461 -5.0% -14.1% 47% 39% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 39% -4.6%
10% -22.3% 30% -13.7%
15% -29.8% 23% -22.1%
20% -36.7% 17% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$40 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1091d coverage
Net worth$3,945
Realized+$8,123
Unrealized−$693
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses217 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$798
Open positions44
Markets (closed)461 / 509
History coverage1091d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 461 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 75¢ $1,000 $1,509 +$509 (+51%)
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $712 $652 −$59 (-8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 25¢ $1,000 $491 −$509 (-51%)
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 70¢ 54¢ $466 $358 −$108 (-23%)
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $140 $109 −$31 (-22%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $90 $88 −$2 (-2%)
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? Yes 62¢ 59¢ $90 $85 −$4 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 59¢ 78¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+31%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 84¢ 98¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 82¢ 94¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+15%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $44 $48 +$4 (+10%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $19 $26 +$7 (+39%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Yes 32¢ 42¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 66¢ 86¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 78¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 47¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 69¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+65%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 28¢ 20¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 16 $383 +$29 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 16 $51 +$14 +27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 16 $87 −$17 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $404 −$200 -49%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 13 $153 +$22 +14%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $208 +$59 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $71 −$50 -70%
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 12 $126 +$14 +11%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Jun 12 $22 −$4 -20%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -27%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $529 +$142 +27%
Will Trump praise Emmanuel Macron by June 30? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump praise Dana White by June 30? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $131 −$8 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -66%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $135 +$227 +168%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 09 $31 −$1 -4%
Will England win? Jun 07 $38 +$12 +33%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 07 $116 −$63 -54%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Malaysia Jun 07 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 05 $104 −$9 -9%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 04 $101 +$40 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$3 -30%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 02 $20 −$15 -76%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 02 $3,103 −$2,378 -77%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan Jun 01 $133 −$118 -89%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands May 31 $120 +$53 +44%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $2,007 +$236 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? May 31 $27 +$18 +67%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $5 +$3 +62%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 +$44 +86%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $338 +$90 +26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $102 +$34 +33%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,055 −$204 -19%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $122 −$67 -55%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh May 30 $333 +$28 +8%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $5,003 −$25 -0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 29 $13 −$10 -78%
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 28 $22 −$2 -8%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 28 $21 +$11 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 73¢ $15 8m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 82¢ $50 1h
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 73¢ $15 9h
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 73¢ $10 19h
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 69¢ $219 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 23h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland $21 25h
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 25h
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $10 25h
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL Yes 68¢ $300 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $65 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes $4 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 59¢ $51 26h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 49¢ $10 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 49¢ $10 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 70¢ $101 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 72¢ $101 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 28¢ $100 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 55¢ $203 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 3d
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 50¢ $135 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 89¢ $61 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 70¢ $70 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 75¢ $38 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 80¢ $101 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,944.76 · official $3,989.35 · 2276 history records