Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:02:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
40 0x404c…5c87 sports 502 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,261 (+2%) realized +$1,261 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate35%173W / 325L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day42.3pace
Fees−$749est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$923
7 days−$689
14 days−$1,242
30 days−$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$1,877
other 34% +$2,664
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 +54.4% +39.7% 35% 24% -12.9%
≤30d 164 +46.8% +32.8% 39% 27% -9.1%
≤90d 498 +29.9% +17.5% 35% 22% -7.5%
all 498 +29.9% +17.5% 35% 22% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.5% 22% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here +6.3% 15% -16.4%
15% -4.0% 11% -24.4%
20% -13.4% 9% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +58% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$26 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$1,261
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses173 / 325
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$749
Open positions4
Markets (closed)498 / 502
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$142
Trades / day42.3
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 498 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 30¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $493 −$212 -43%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $8 $0 -3%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 18 $500 −$374 -75%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 $0 -23%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $49 +$2 +4%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$1 -15%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $14 +$25 +185%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $22 +$8 +34%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -7%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $500 +$21 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $139 +$7 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $710 +$30 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $7 $0 -3%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -10%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $3 $0 -16%
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? Jun 17 $2 $0 -15%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $88 −$75 -86%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 $0 -2%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 +$62 +399%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $50 +$49 +98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $227 −$4 -2%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $70 −$23 -34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $174 −$45 -26%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$15 -42%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $24 +$4 +15%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $66 −$63 -94%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $447 +$78 +18%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $471 −$471 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,500 −$213 -14%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 $0 -4%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $96 +$4 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
Australia to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 16 $250 +$49 +20%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $11 $0 -2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $112 +$6 +5%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $18 $0 -2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $103 +$6 +6%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $779 +$73 +9%
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 16 $693 +$71 +10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $92 +$15 +16%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $191 +$47 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? SELL Yes 93¢ $0 1h
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? SELL Yes 23¢ $126 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 50¢ $278 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $48 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $167 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $213 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $65 1h
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 90¢ $500 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $2 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $51 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 95¢ $49 4h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 17¢ $4 5h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 19¢ $2 5h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 20¢ $2 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 99¢ $38 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $29 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 74¢ $22 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 34¢ $14 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 93¢ $9 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 93¢ $9 5h
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 5h
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.22 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records