Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x404d…4d72 crypto 1157 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$104 (-0%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%1111W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$78
14 days−$78
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$162
other 16% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +10.3% -0.2% 52% 24% -11.9%
≤30d 43 +8.4% -1.9% 44% 23% -12.2%
≤90d 1157 -0.1% -9.6% 96% 3% -10.1%
all 1157 -0.1% -9.6% 96% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 3% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 1% -18.7%
15% -26.1% 1% -26.6%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$12 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1111 / 46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1157 / 1157
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1157 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $77 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $166 −$20 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $183 −$21 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $255 −$25 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $130 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $17 +$9 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $19 +$15 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $77 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $96 −$16 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $144 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $187 −$16 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $17 +$9 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $48 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $174 −$15 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $201 −$16 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $107 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $142 −$9 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $67 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $17 +$11 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $135 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $75 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $33 +$15 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $176 −$19 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $55 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $70 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $91 −$10 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $74 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $131 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 08 $118 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 08 $106 −$11 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 08 $18 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 04 $183 −$9 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 04 $198 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 04 $130 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 04 $126 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 04 $12 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 03 $76 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 02 $59 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 02 $116 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 02 $12 +$8 +70%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Apr 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 21 $20 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 21 $13 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - April 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 21 $20 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 21 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 21 $4 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 21 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $30 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $30 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $40 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $24 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $15 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $12 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $41 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $15 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $28 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $14 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $32 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $34 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $29 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $34 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $32 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $29 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $13 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $16 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records