Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x404d…cd9d
crypto · 694 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$398 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$398 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized−$398
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses465 / 229
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)694 / 694
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 694 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$149
14 days−$149
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5) Lille OSC 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$201
other 3% −$148
sports 1% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -7.5% -16.3% 49% 22% -18.5%
≤30d 137 -7.5% -16.3% 49% 22% -18.5%
≤90d 690 -1.7% -11.1% 67% 58% -12.4%
all 694 -2.3% -11.6% 67% 57% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 57% -15.4%
10% -20.0% 39% -23.5%
15% -27.8% 25% -30.9%
20% -34.8% 12% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1353 history records