Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x404e…4cd2
crypto · 1438 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,664 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,669 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$1,669
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses859 / 579
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1438 / 1438
History coverage7d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day278.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1438 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,149
7 days−$1,799
14 days−$1,669
30 days−$1,669
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 42¢ 74¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+75%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $1,104 $0 −$1,104 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 12 $1,104 −$1,104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$8 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$12 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$8 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$7 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$9 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$7 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$9 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$11 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$8 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$7 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$8 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$559
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $8 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $8 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $7 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1327 -4.8% -13.8% 60% 30% -13.1%
≤30d 1438 -4.2% -13.3% 60% 30% -12.4%
≤90d 1438 -4.2% -13.3% 60% 30% -12.4%
all 1438 -4.2% -13.3% 60% 30% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover278.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 30% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 23% -20.8%
15% -29.2% 21% -28.5%
20% -36.1% 18% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.39 · official $8.18 · 3500 history records