Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:24:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
40 0x4059…8763 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$165 (+15%) realized +$172 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate74%14W / 5L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$227
7 days+$331
14 days+$347
30 days+$347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$225
other 38% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)+27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +58.6% +43.5% 81% 81% +40.5%
≤30d 17 +57.7% +42.7% 82% 82% +39.9%
≤90d 19 +41.1% +27.7% 74% 74% +32.9%
all 19 +41.1% +27.7% 74% 74% +32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.7% 74% +32.9%
10% +15.4% 74% +20.1%
15% +4.3% 58% +8.5%
20% -5.9% 53% -2.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +76% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$27 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.34 per $1 lost it wins $3.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized+$172
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses14 / 5
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)19 / 29
History coverage70d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $57 $55 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 56¢ 58¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+4%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 44¢ 42¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 43¢ 38¢ $38 $33 −$5 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $35 +$22 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $49 +$51 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $68 −$67 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Wil Jun 18 $30 +$98 +325%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $35 +$18 +52%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $35 +$10 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 +$28 +73%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$24 +119%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $79 +$22 +27%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $24 −$23 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$51 +144%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $38 +$47 +124%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $35 +$26 +73%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $38 +$13 +34%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +43%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $57 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: Sc BUY $26 19h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 13¢ $26 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $68 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $35 41h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $35 41h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $17 44h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 44h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $79 45h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $20 46h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 46h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Wil BUY 23¢ $30 46h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $24 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026- BUY 68¢ $50 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 40¢ $35 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $35 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Fr BUY $21 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 7d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $38 7d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $38 7d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 56¢ $38 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $38 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $38 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $38 7d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $20 69d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $14 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.70 · official $328.70 · 44 history records