Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:05:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4059…23da other 449 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 147d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,748 (+13%) realized +$1,748 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate33%147W / 302L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$200est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$269
7 days+$378
14 days+$674
30 days+$712
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$1,367
world 20% −$224
other 12% +$483
politics 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +41.7% +28.2% 75% 62% +40.6%
≤30d 39 -9.4% -18.0% 54% 44% +31.7%
≤90d 201 -14.5% -22.6% 33% 25% +1.8%
all 449 -21.5% -29.0% 33% 24% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 24% -0.2%
10% -35.8% 20% -9.7%
15% -42.0% 15% -18.5%
20% -47.7% 11% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$3 · ×6.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.12 per $1 lost it wins $3.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,748
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses147 / 302
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$200
Open positions0
Markets (closed)449 / 449
History coverage148d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 449 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $350 +$269 +77%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $43 +$8 +18%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $25 +$45 +179%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $105 +$60 +57%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $39 +$3 +8%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $17 −$8 -50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $93 +$9 +10%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $50 +$26 +51%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $122 +$18 +15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $62 +$16 +26%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $62 +$16 +26%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$20 +134%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 +$1 +7%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $70 +$140 +200%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $65 +$39 +59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $33 +$6 +18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $80 +$20 +25%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $51 +$6 +12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $42 +$4 +9%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 10 $0 $0 -8%
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Oman win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mongolia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Finland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 01 $1 $0 -3%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1 −$1 -63%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $294 −$21 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 22 $170 +$40 +24%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 21 $2 −$1 -95%
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $3 +$208 +6738%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $55 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $36 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $107 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $27 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $36 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $66 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $45 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $24 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $24 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records