Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

40 0x4059…74e2 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$16 (-19%) realized −$19 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$9 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$66

Realized−$19

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)	Michael Chandler	19¢	22¢	$19	$23	+$3 (+16%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Derrick Lewis	21¢	22¢	$22	$22	+$1 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Justin Gaethje	21¢	20¢	$22	$21	−$1 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)	Steve Garcia	41¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-100%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)	Kyle Daukaus	25¢	0¢	$9	$0	−$9 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$9	−$9	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)	BUY Kyle Daukaus	25¢	$9	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	BUY Steve Garcia	41¢	$10	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai	BUY Michael Chandler	19¢	$20	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Derrick Lewis	21¢	$22	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	21¢	$22	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.56 · official $65.56 (match) · 5 history records