Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:06:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x405d…7fb9 crypto 320 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-1%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%311W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$28
14 days−$6
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$12
other 9% −$41
finance 5% +$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤30d 172 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 320 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 0% -10.2%
all 320 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$19 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses311 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)320 / 320
History coverage68d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 320 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $26 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 99¢ $49 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $29 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $29 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 32h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $38 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $48 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.88 · official $50.00 (match) · 1977 history records