Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x405e…feb0 crypto 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$714 (-4%) realized −$714 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate64%96W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$812
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.7% +0.2% 75% 50% -15.6%
≤30d 4 +10.7% +0.2% 75% 50% -15.6%
≤90d 4 +10.7% +0.2% 75% 50% -15.6%
all 150 +2.2% -7.5% 64% 50% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 50% -13.8%
10% -16.4% 41% -22.0%
15% -24.4% 35% -29.6%
20% -31.9% 27% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$83 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$714
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses96 / 54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)150 / 150
History coverage188d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 150 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $163 −$55 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$10 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $60 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $42 +$23 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 07 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 07 $1,111 −$658 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 07 $440 +$186 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 07 $200 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Mar 07 $307 +$184 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 06 $143 +$164 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 06 $114 −$112 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 05 $463 −$457 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 05 $303 +$160 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 05 $195 +$107 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 05 $455 −$258 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 05 $695 +$126 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 05 $300 −$295 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Mar 05 $400 +$55 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 05 $200 +$49 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 05 $454 +$98 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 05 $333 +$125 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 05 $294 +$40 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Mar 05 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 05 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 14 $218 −$215 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 14 $211 +$170 +81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 12? Jan 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 11? Jan 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 10? Jan 11 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jan 07 $116 −$55 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 07 $52 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 07 $63 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 07 $60 +$5 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 7? Jan 07 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 04 $100 −$44 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 04 $100 +$84 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 04 $100 +$59 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 04 $50 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 04 $100 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 04 $100 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 04 $60 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 04 $100 +$78 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 04 $100 +$80 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 04 $100 −$44 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 04 $180 −$16 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 04 $100 −$61 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 04 $50 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 04 $100 +$48 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 04 $212 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 04 $100 +$30 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $60 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $65 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $42 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $25 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $17 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $8 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $423 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $428 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $688 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $583 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $6 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $22 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $15 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $440 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $221 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $200 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $307 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $307 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $143 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $114 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $463 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $463 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $303 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $41 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 357 history records