Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:18:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x405f…5852 politics 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,181 (-1%) realized −$2,181 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate16%26W / 139L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,508per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$37
30 days−$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$140
other 37% −$2,095
sports 11% +$30
culture 2% −$5
economics 1% −$4
tech 1% −$1
world 1% −$6
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 52 -7.8% -16.6% 6% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 110 -4.7% -13.8% 6% 2% -10.3%
all 165 -3.3% -12.5% 16% 10% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 10% -10.3%
10% -20.9% 10% -18.9%
15% -28.5% 9% -26.7%
20% -35.5% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,897) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$27 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized−$2,181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses26 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)165 / 167
History coverage134d
Avg bet$1,508
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $203 $203 −$0 (-0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $93 $93 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $233 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $3,598 −$5 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 26 $2,140 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 26 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 25 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $7,415 −$8 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $266 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $3,341 −$5 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $204 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $247 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,069 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,185 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $9,161 −$10 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,917 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $283 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $2,603 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $4,418 −$5 -0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,054 −$2 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 05 $76 −$76 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,794 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $707 −$1 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,880 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,143 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 02 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $124 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,956 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $286 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $4,657 −$5 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $2,442 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $4,768 −$5 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $1,975 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $1,864 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $9,680 −$10 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $203 1h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $232 21h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $233 24h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $225 28h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $225 29h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $251 44h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $252 2d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $235 2d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $236 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $232 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $232 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $208 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $208 3d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $221 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $273 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $274 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $265 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $93 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $266 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $208 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $208 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $247 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $247 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $230 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $230 8d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $204 9d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $204 10d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $247 10d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $247 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.53 · official $295.53 (match) · 672 history records