Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x405f…3897 sports 1252 markets active 12h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$371 (-5%) realized −$358 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%628W / 611L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$297
other 9% −$96
crypto 5% +$32
politics 1% −$1
world 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 50% -2.8%
≤30d 21 +7.0% -3.2% 52% 52% -2.5%
≤90d 86 -21.8% -29.3% 36% 36% -32.6%
all 1239 -3.8% -12.9% 51% 50% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 50% -13.9%
10% -21.3% 48% -22.1%
15% -28.9% 45% -29.7%
20% -35.8% 37% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$358
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses628 / 611
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1239 / 1252
History coverage580d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $41 $39 −$2 (-4%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 21¢ 17¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-21%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+56%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded? Yes 30¢ $13 $4 −$9 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $13 −$7 -56%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $8 +$3 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $7 +$4 +64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$12 +162%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$4 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $9 +$15 +175%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +109%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 03 $6 −$6 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $7 −$7 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 01 $6 +$5 +86%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $9 +$6 +70%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $7 +$4 +57%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $3 +$8 +250%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $6 +$6 +101%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $6 −$5 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $6 +$10 +158%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $7 −$6 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 17 $7 +$4 +50%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $7 +$4 +57%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $4 +$7 +152%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 13 $6 +$6 +101%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Tucumán end in a draw? May 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-30? May 03 $6 +$12 +226%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 01 $6 −$2 -37%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 30 $7 −$7 -99%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 30 $8 −$8 -99%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 30 $8 −$8 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 28 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Apr 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 27 $6 $0 -3%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Charlotte Hornets make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arvell Reese be drafted 4th overall in the 2026 pro football draf Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-19? Apr 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 15¢ $3 11h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 31h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 14¢ $3 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $3 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $8 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $11 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 50¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 15¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY $2 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY $2 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $7 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $6 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 88¢ $13 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $7 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $11 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $5 9d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Bruno Silva 55¢ $6 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $7 14d
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Rodrigo Vera 53¢ $6 20d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 21d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 42¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.56 · official $113.50 (match) · 3241 history records