Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x405f…4940 other 846 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,566 (+2%) realized +$3,575 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate76%633W / 204L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day49.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$1,196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 59d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$433
finance 25% +$423
tech 17% +$563
culture 2% +$78
sports 2% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +12.1% +1.4% 91% 1% -7.8%
≤30d 376 -3.2% -12.4% 77% 1% -8.1%
≤90d 837 -0.3% -9.8% 76% 2% -8.9%
all 837 -0.3% -9.8% 76% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 2% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 1% -17.6%
15% -26.3% 1% -25.5%
20% -33.5% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$1,196
Realized+$3,575
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses633 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)837 / 846
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$199
Trades / day49.1
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 837 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in June? No 93¢ 95¢ $306 $313 +$7 (+2%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in June? No 94¢ 87¢ $235 $217 −$18 (-8%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in June? No 96¢ 93¢ $192 $185 −$7 (-4%)
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Down 90¢ 93¢ $176 $181 +$5 (+3%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $96 in June? No 94¢ 96¢ $138 $140 +$3 (+2%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $330 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $115 $115 +$0 (+0%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in June? No 94¢ 97¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+3%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $315 in June? No 96¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $320 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in June? Jun 13 $558 +$24 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $382 +$16 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $187 +$7 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $358 +$6 +2%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $174 +$2 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $440 +$20 +5%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.50 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $413 +$4 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $224 +$2 +1%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $457.50 Week of June 8 20 Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $465 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $630 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $75 +$2 +2%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $223 +$2 +1%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $67.50 Week of June 8 20 Jun 12 $84 +$2 +3%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $442.50 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $220 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $234 +$7 +3%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $189 +$11 +6%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $272 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $260 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 Week of June 8 Jun 12 $31 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.25 Week of June 8 Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $180 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $216 +$4 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 8 Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of June 8 Jun 12 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.75 Week of June 8 Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.50 Week of June 8 Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $268 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $214 +$6 +3%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $259 +$6 +2%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $686 +$23 +3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $423 +$3 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $159 +$2 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.75 Week of June 8 Jun 12 $199 +$1 +1%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $650 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $194 +$5 +3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -90%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $219 +$2 +1%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $783 +$16 +2%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 91¢ $67 1h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 90¢ $110 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in June? SELL No 98¢ $244 30h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in June? SELL No 98¢ $196 2d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of June 8 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $225 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $268 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $301 2d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $412 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $161 2d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.75 Week of June 8 SELL No 100¢ $201 2d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $268 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 2d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 2d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $177 2d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 2d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $268 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $268 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $268 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,195.58 · official $1,195.58 (match) · 3500 history records