Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:45:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x4060…0f76
crypto · 166 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$103 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$101 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$101
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses74 / 91
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage12d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day206.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 165 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$614
14 days−$101
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 64¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$136 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$15 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$26 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$91 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$16 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$18 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$41 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$19 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$17 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$46 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $42 +$82 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $268 −$216 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $155 +$131 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$59 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$109 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$41 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$66 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $205 +$107 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $205 +$122 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $204 +$89 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $205 +$117 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$26 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $8 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $9 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $8 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +1.3% -8.3% 47% 47% +1.2%
≤30d 165 -7.4% -16.2% 45% 44% -10.8%
≤90d 165 -7.4% -16.2% 45% 44% -10.8%
all 165 -7.4% -16.2% 45% 44% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover206.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 44% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 41% -19.3%
15% -31.6% 39% -27.1%
20% -38.3% 33% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.69 · official $9.31 (match) · 2551 history records