Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:50:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4061…dde5 sports 826 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,300 (-18%) realized −$3,116 · open −$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%207W / 546L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day43.6pace
Fees−$201est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$809now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$411
7 days+$644
14 days+$144
30 days−$3,089
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$708
world 16% −$1,133
other 15% −$358
politics 10% −$790
crypto 6% −$23
finance 1% −$123
tech 1% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 +37.4% +24.3% 37% 35% +17.8%
≤30d 657 -13.8% -22.0% 26% 26% -28.4%
≤90d 753 -9.6% -18.2% 27% 27% -26.7%
all 753 -9.6% -18.2% 27% 27% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 27% -26.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 26% -33.7%
15% -33.2% 26% -40.1%
20% -39.7% 25% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$19 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$809
Realized−$3,116
Unrealized−$184
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses207 / 546
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions29
Markets (closed)753 / 826
History coverage32d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 753 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Will Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? Yes 36¢ 42¢ $99 $114 +$15 (+15%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $160 $95 −$65 (-40%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $100 $54 −$46 (-46%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 32¢ 16¢ $100 $52 −$48 (-48%)
Will Jordan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 2¢ 20¢ $2 $25 +$23 (+1153%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $19 +$14 (+276%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-48%)
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-25%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 33¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+50%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 4¢ 3¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Will Panama concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 +$37 +712%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 +$9 +93%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$30 +194%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 +$23 +226%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Grêmio Novorizontino: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$17 +110%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Grêmio Novorizontino: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 +$10 +101%
São Bernardo FC vs. EC Juventude: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
São Bernardo FC vs. EC Juventude: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $21 +$280 +1364%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $4 +$29 +712%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 +$82 +798%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$40 +388%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tunisia concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 21 $31 +$71 +231%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Wydad Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
HUS Agadir vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
IR Tanger vs. RCA Zemamra: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$4 -43%
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2 +$6 +262%
AS FAR vs. Kawkab AC: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$11 +107%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 +$33 +215%
Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Vila Nova FC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $150 −$48 -32%
Will Zdenko Lučić be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzego Jun 21 $109 +$68 +62%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 −$6 -27%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$22 +216%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $7 +$21 +291%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $18 +$37 +206%
Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and H Jun 20 $153 +$13 +8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 20 $100 −$92 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $5 2h
AA Ponte Preta vs. Grêmio Novorizontino: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 67¢ $32 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $5 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $5 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 2h
AA Ponte Preta vs. Grêmio Novorizontino: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 13¢ $15 3h
AA Ponte Preta vs. Grêmio Novorizontino: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $15 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND Algeria leading at halftime? BUY 7¢ $15 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY 19¢ $20 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY 9¢ $21 4h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Jordan vs BUY 9¢ $26 5h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 6h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half BUY 11¢ $21 6h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $15 6h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND BUY 3¢ $21 6h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 19¢ $20 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $10 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $10 9h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U BUY 2¢ $21 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $15 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $809.41 · official $828.03 · 2119 history records