Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4066…f708 crypto 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$440 (-14%) realized −$440 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate54%31W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$51
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$591
other 24% −$10
politics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 50% -21.2%
≤30d 18 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 50% -21.2%
≤90d 20 -10.9% -19.3% 55% 45% -20.4%
all 57 -9.0% -17.7% 54% 30% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 30% -26.9%
10% -25.6% 28% -33.9%
15% -32.8% 28% -40.3%
20% -39.4% 28% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$53 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$440
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses31 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage547d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$35 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$35 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +78%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$25 +100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$17 +64%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 01 $5 $0 +8%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer May 01 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 26 $106 −$106 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 26 $104 −$104 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 26 $111 −$111 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 26 $100 +$102 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 26 $112 +$104 +93%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 26 $100 +$84 +84%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 26 $50 −$50 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 26 $100 −$98 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 26 $100 −$98 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 26 $70 +$64 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 26 $70 +$63 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 26 $70 −$69 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 26 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 25 $20 +$64 +320%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 25 $110 −$108 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 25 $52 +$66 +125%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$83 +83%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Will "My Secret Santa" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (Dec Feb 24 $13 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Dec 09 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 09 $16 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12? Nov 20 $16 $0 +1%
Will “A House of Dynamite” be the top global Netflix movie this week? Nov 10 $16 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition Nov 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025? Oct 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings? Sep 26 $16 $0 -1%
Record low border encounters in June? Sep 03 $16 $0 +0%
Solana above $140 on July 4? Jul 14 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 55m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $45 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $45 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records