Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
40 0x4068…a98e other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$12,094 (+17%) realized +$12,094 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$3,237per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Fees−$213est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,490
7 days+$13,618
14 days+$13,912
30 days+$13,912
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$15,003
sports 13% −$1,091
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.4% -9.1% 63% 58% +9.4%
≤30d 22 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 59% +8.2%
≤90d 22 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 59% +8.2%
all 22 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 59% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 59% +8.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 45% -2.1%
15% -26.3% 45% -11.6%
20% -33.6% 32% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$5,074) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,949 vs −$1,672 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12,094
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$213
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3,237
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $3,044 +$527 +17%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5,648 +$2,868 +51%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $1,030 −$1,000 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3,058 +$1,290 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6,147 +$5,504 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $4,111 −$4,000 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,708 −$1,700 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5,074 +$4,926 +97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7,085 +$2,915 +41%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5,099 +$2,363 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4,573 +$427 +9%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,031 −$1,000 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,691 +$1,896 +70%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,033 −$1,000 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,007 −$2,000 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,024 +$1,405 +137%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8,100 +$900 +11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,680 −$1,680 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,023 +$977 +96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4,016 +$582 +14%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,013 +$712 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $3,044 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $29 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $6 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $95 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $39 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $98 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $25 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $20 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $39 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $29 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $10 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $18 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $2 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $38 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $10 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $5 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $2 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $20 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $10 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $41 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $293 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $22 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $20 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $19 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $10 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $25 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $4 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $2 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $20 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records