Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x406b…f22b
crypto · 922 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$42 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$34 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$242
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses843 / 34
Open positions45
Markets (closed)877 / 922
History coverage737d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 45 History 877 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$70
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of June 8 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of June 8 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $450? No 100¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 15? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $120 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on June 6? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 6? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$465 on the final day of trading of the we Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $336 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close at >$680 on the final day of trading of the wee Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $240? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 1 above $465? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$415 on the final day of trading of the Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $690? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 1 above $420? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 1 above $305? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 1 above $340? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 1 above $490? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% −$40
other 4% −$9
world 3% +$5
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
sports 0% +$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $450? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$440 on the final day of trading of the we BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $320-$325 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $660 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $325? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$395 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $272 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $190? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $340? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 176 -0.8% -10.3% 97% 0% -15.0%
≤90d 229 -0.6% -10.1% 97% 0% -13.2%
all 877 -0.0% -9.6% 96% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 4% -9.8%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.1% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.85 · official $242.04 (match) · 2131 history records