Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x406b…dc4e crypto 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-4%) realized −$63 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate57%43W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$8
14 days−$69
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 48% +$43
crypto 43% −$81
sports 6% −$6
other 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -3.6% -12.7% 51% 47% -11.5%
≤30d 75 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 40% -16.5%
≤90d 75 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 40% -16.5%
all 75 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 40% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 40% -16.5%
10% -19.4% 33% -24.5%
15% -27.2% 21% -31.8%
20% -34.3% 20% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses43 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)75 / 80
History coverage11d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $101 $131 +$29 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 20? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+143%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 20? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 20? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 +$15 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 +$3 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $22 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $39 −$28 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $44 −$29 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $36 +$34 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$24 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$6 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 95¢ $58 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 78¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 82¢ $32 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $21 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $27 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 29h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 29h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 29h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? SELL Yes 57¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 77¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.54 · official $150.54 (match) · 166 history records