Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
40 0x406c…c6e7 other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$13
politics 26% −$6
sports 6% +$4
economics 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +20.9% +9.4% 20% 20% -9.0%
≤30d 18 +5.7% -4.3% 11% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 107 -2.5% -11.7% 11% 8% -9.6%
all 107 -2.5% -11.7% 11% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 8% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 8% -18.2%
15% -27.9% 7% -26.1%
20% -35.0% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 95
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)107 / 110
History coverage89d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $128 $128 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $234 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $7 +$8 +105%
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $243 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $449 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $236 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $114 $0 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $233 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 16 $221 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $198 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $393 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $440 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $423 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $409 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $463 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $225 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $412 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $221 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $226 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $224 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $211 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $222 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $411 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $205 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $215 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $399 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $435 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $72 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $29 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $7 4d
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $29 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $128 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 9d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 9d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 9d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 9d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 11d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 11d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $27 12d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $27 12d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 16d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 17d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 17d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 19d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 19d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 20d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.86 · official $236.86 (match) · 300 history records