Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x406e…436a other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%17W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$7
other 27% −$11
sports 19% −$5
crypto 11% −$10
world 5% −$3
economics 4% −$1
culture 3% −$1
finance 2% −$1
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 87 -0.4% -9.8% 15% 0% -9.8%
all 107 -0.3% -9.8% 16% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses17 / 90
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage107d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $139 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $95 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $217 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 06 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $191 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $156 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $59 $0 +1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $180 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 05 $168 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $104 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $59 −$1 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $49 $0 -1%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $60 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $82 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 03 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $224 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 03 $96 −$1 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $39 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $108 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $44 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Apr 30 $42 −$3 -6%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $160 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $93 −$2 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $56 +$3 +5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $118 −$2 -2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 24 $239 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 24 $51 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $114 $0 -0%
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $369 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 12 $113 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 12 $326 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $54 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 7d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 7d
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 98¢ $40 19d
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $41 19d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $38 33d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $38 33d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $49 46d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $50 46d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $45 46d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $45 46d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $56 46d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $56 47d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 97¢ $64 47d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 97¢ $64 47d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 97¢ $65 47d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $65 47d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $45 47d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $45 47d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $56 47d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $57 48d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 92¢ $49 48d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 93¢ $50 48d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $62 48d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $62 48d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $55 48d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $55 48d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $59 48d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.44 · official $54.44 (match) · 418 history records