Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
40 0x406f…240d crypto 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate82%51W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$18
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +1.4% -8.3% 82% 37% -7.6%
≤30d 62 +1.4% -8.3% 82% 35% -7.6%
≤90d 62 +1.4% -8.3% 82% 35% -7.6%
all 62 +1.4% -8.3% 82% 35% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 35% -7.6%
10% -17.1% 19% -16.4%
15% -25.1% 8% -24.5%
20% -32.4% 5% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses51 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage20d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $24 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $22 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $42 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $34 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $47 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 28 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8AM ET Jun 28 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $55 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $18 −$8 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$8 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 216 history records