Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x4072…266d crypto 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$311 (-20%) realized −$305 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%28W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$454now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$32
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$351
other 31% −$1
sports 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +35.1% +22.2% 60% 60% +21.9%
≤30d 13 +19.7% +8.3% 54% 54% +5.8%
≤90d 73 -21.0% -28.6% 38% 37% -39.2%
all 73 -21.0% -28.6% 38% 37% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 37% -39.2%
10% -35.4% 37% -45.0%
15% -41.6% 36% -50.3%
20% -47.4% 32% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$454
Realized−$305
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses28 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)73 / 80
History coverage53d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $37 −$2 (-6%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $9 −$3 -34%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $9 +$16 +172%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$9 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 +$13 +124%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$12 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 01 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 01 $17 −$14 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 01 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 01 $44 −$34 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 01 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 01 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 01 $3 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 01 $36 −$21 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 01 $8 +$16 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 01 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 30 $16 +$20 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 30 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 30 $36 −$8 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 30 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 30 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 30 $20 +$15 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 30 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 30 $19 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 30 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 30 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 30 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 30 $19 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 30 $21 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 30 $20 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 30 $18 +$12 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 30 $29 −$10 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 30 $21 −$11 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $62 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 13h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $9 13h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 29¢ $6 13h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 42¢ $9 14h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $9 42h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $11 6d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $10 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 78¢ $23 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $50 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $51 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $3 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $17 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $453.73 · official $453.73 (match) · 152 history records