Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:07:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
40 0x4077…bdd5 crypto 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$601now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 89% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 89% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 89% 0% -9.4%
all 9 +0.0% -9.5% 89% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$601
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)9 / 16
History coverage6d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $245 $248 +$2 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $199 $201 +$2 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? No 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $168 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $110 −$5 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $42 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $731 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $732 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $86 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 2¢ $7 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $96 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 9¢ $11 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $42 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $39 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $74 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $42 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $149 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $39 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $731 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $26 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $706 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $600.86 · official $600.99 (match) · 38 history records