Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x4077…7434
sports · 19 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$457 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$418 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized−$418
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage102d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 1 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$98
14 days−$98
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 11¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Monte $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 15¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Monte 30¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Legacy 60¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Monte 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BIG 11¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Team Falcons 42¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $167 +$13 +8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $38 +$11 +30%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $24 +$31 +127%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $63 −$13 -20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $75 +$18 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $99 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $42 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $27 −$20 -74%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $12 −$11 -87%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $176 −$82 -47%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $125 −$44 -35%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $348 −$108 -31%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $54 +$32 +58%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 May 10 $46 −$46 -100%
US strikes Iraq by March 7? Mar 12 $226 −$180 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 07 $10 −$8 -75%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% −$238
other 15% −$187
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 11¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 11¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 11¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 11¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 12¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 16¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 16¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 16¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 16¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 16¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 16¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 16¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 16¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 16¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 16¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 18¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 23¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-49.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -34.9% -41.1% 42% 25% -17.5%
≤30d 12 -34.9% -41.1% 42% 25% -17.5%
≤90d 15 -35.6% -41.7% 40% 27% -29.0%
all 18 -43.8% -49.1% 33% 22% -41.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.1% 22% -41.7%
10% -54.0% 22% -47.3%
15% -58.4% 11% -52.4%
20% -62.5% 11% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 180 history records